Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Todd Gurley
Todd Gurley

Player breakdown

Todd Gurley

Georgia · 2015 Draft Class

6-1222 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~32
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2015STL132291,106102118801,294
2016LAR1627888564332701,212
2017LAR152791,305136478862,093
2018LAR142561,251175958041,831
2019LAR15223857123120721,064
2020ATL151956789251640842
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2012GeorgiaSEC02221,38517161171,502
2013GeorgiaSEC814490310303441,247
2014GeorgiaSEC012391191257968

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

95%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 106.4 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
4.52s forty — average speed+0.395

Top Negative Factors

58 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
619.5 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.264
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.144

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)