Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard

Player breakdown

Tony Pollard

Memphis · 2019 Draft Class

6-0210 lbs4th round, 128th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
Elite1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

82%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2019DAL15864552151071562
2020DAL161014354281931628
2021DAL1513071923933701,056
2022DAL161931,00793937131,378
2023DAL172521,00565531101,316
2024TEN162601,07954123801,317
2025TEN172421,08253320601,288
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2016MemphisAmerican Athletic029154125217371
2017MemphisAmerican Athletic029222234501723
2018MemphisAmerican Athletic061443539458901

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

82%

ML model output

Context Prob

82%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
4.52s forty — average speed+0.395
4.29 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360

Top Negative Factors

98 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Recruiting pedigree did not match production output-0.229
0.16 TDs/catch — primary red-zone usage pattern-0.196

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)