Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Trent Richardson
Trent Richardson

Player breakdown

Trent Richardson

Alabama · 2012 Draft Class

5-9228 lbs1st round, 3rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~36
EliteDoak Walker x1All-American x1All-Conference x11000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 978NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

95%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2012CLE15267950115136711,317
2013IND141574583282651723
2014IND151595193272290748
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2009AlabamaSEC0145751816126877
2010AlabamaSEC0102658522254912
2011AlabamaSEC02631,58320273271,910

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

98%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1 All-Conference selection — proven conference-level excellence+0.494
Conference-adjusted speed score: 113.2 — speed measured against quality competition+0.462
0.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429

Top Negative Factors

8.38 ypg per lb — exceptional size-adjusted production-0.339
65 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Rb rush yards per game-0.126

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)