Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Trey Sermon
Trey Sermon

Player breakdown

Trey Sermon

Ohio St. · 2021 Draft Class

6-0215 lbs3rd round, 88th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

35%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2021SFO94116713260193
2022PHI2219000019
2023IND143516003130173
2024IND1756159216990258
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2017OklahomaSEC6119710516139849
2018OklahomaSEC815592812121811,109
2019OklahomaSEC3543854871456
2020Ohio StateBig Ten211687041295965

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

35%

ML model output

Context Prob

35%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.57s forty — slow speed+0.395
4.49 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.295
Catch radius: 90.5 — strong physical reach envelope+0.236

Top Negative Factors

4.28s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
Rb rush td rate-0.411
12 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)