Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Troy Fleming
Troy Fleming

Player breakdown

Troy Fleming

Tennessee · 2004 Draft Class

6th round, 191st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~45
LowMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

12%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2004TEN167400191642204
2005TEN130001069169
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2003TennesseeSEC101127031233260

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

12%

ML model output

Context Prob

12%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

34.7 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison+0.429
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.360
2 career TDs — solid scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.483
Rb rush td rate-0.411
Rb rush yards per attempt-0.337

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)