Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tyler Allgeier
Tyler Allgeier

Player breakdown

Tyler Allgeier

BYU · 2022 Draft Class

5-11224 lbs5th round, 151st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
Elite1000+ Scrimmage
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

75%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2022ATL162101,03531613911,174
2023ATL171866834181931876
2024ATL17137644313880732
2025ATL17143514814960610
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2018BYUBig 12066000060
2019BYUBig 1209420367109
2020BYUBig 1291501,13013141741,304
2021BYUBig 12112491,41420261871,601

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

75%

ML model output

Context Prob

75%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.60s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 87.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
Rb rush yards per attempt+0.227

Top Negative Factors

3 freshman catches — suppressed depth chart-0.364
7.15 ypg per lb — strong size-adjusted production-0.318
43 career receptions — limited volume-0.278

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)