Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Vick Ballard
Vick Ballard

Player breakdown

Vick Ballard

Mississippi St. · 2012 Draft Class

5-10219 lbs5th round, 170th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~36
MediumMissed 1000+ Scrim
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

40%

YearTeamGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDScrim Yds
2012IND162118142171521966
2013IND1136301-5058
SeasonTeamConfGRush AttRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsScrim Yds
2010Mississippi StateSEC916689216895987
2011Mississippi StateSEC51791,0098181781,187

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

40%

ML model output

Context Prob

40%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.268

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.59s forty — slow speed+0.395
Catch radius: 86.5 — limited physical reach envelope+0.236
26 career TDs — prolific scoring production+0.188

Top Negative Factors

4.19s short shuttle — average lateral quickness-0.665
26 career receptions — limited volume-0.278
Recruiting pedigree did not match production output-0.229

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)