Player breakdown
Aaron Hernandez
Florida · 2010 Draft Class
6-2245 lbs4th round, 113th overallAge at Draft: 20Age: ~36
EliteJohn Mackey x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
75%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | NWE | 14 | 7 | 64 | 45 | 563 | 12.5 | 6 | 40.2 |
| 2011 | NWE | 14 | 12 | 113 | 79 | 910 | 11.5 | 7 | 65 |
| 2012 | NWE | 10 | 10 | 83 | 51 | 483 | 9.5 | 5 | 48.3 |
| Career | 38 | 29 | 260 | 175 | 1,956 | 11.2 | 18 | 51.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Florida | SEC | 2 | 6 | 120 | 2 | 20 | 60 |
| 2008 | Florida | SEC | 4 | 29 | 324 | 5 | 11.2 | 81 |
| 2009 | Florida | SEC | 3 | 68 | 850 | 5 | 12.5 | 283.3 |
| Career | 9 | 103 | 1,294 | 12 | 12.6 | 143.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
75%
ML model output
Context Prob
75%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,133 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.641
3.47 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.400
Strong ascending production slope (+365 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.371
Top Negative Factors
60.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.447
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.363
Class YPR rank: top 56% — average per-target efficiency-0.335