Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Adrien Robinson
Adrien Robinson

Player breakdown

Adrien Robinson

Cincinnati · 2012 Draft Class

4th round, 127th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

16%

SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2008CincinnatiBig 1201120120
2009CincinnatiBig 12110174117.4174
2010CincinnatiBig 121665110.865
2011CincinnatiBig 1248167320.941.8
Career625418516.769.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

16%

ML model output

Context Prob

16%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Class YPR rank: top 0% — elite per-target efficiency+0.393
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.238
YPG ranked at 9th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.198

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+51) — improving trajectory-0.719
208 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.505
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.428

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)