Player breakdown
AJ Barner
Michigan · 2024 Draft Class
6-6251 lbs4th round, 121st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~24
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
5%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | SEA | 17 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 245 | 8.2 | 4 | 14.4 |
| 2025 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 68 | 52 | 519 | 10 | 6 | 30.5 |
| Career | 34 | 23 | 106 | 82 | 764 | 9.3 | 10 | 22.5 | |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
5%
ML model output
Context Prob
5%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
YPG ranked at 25th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.190
-65.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.185
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.160
Top Negative Factors
Positive production trend (+78) — improving trajectory-0.706
332 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.478
0.99 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.430