Player breakdown
Alex Smith
Stanford · 2005 Draft Class
6-4258 lbs3rd round, 71st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~44
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | TAM | 16 | 10 | 61 | 41 | 367 | 9 | 2 | 22.9 |
| 2006 | TAM | 14 | 7 | 53 | 35 | 250 | 7.1 | 3 | 17.9 |
| 2007 | TAM | 14 | 14 | 53 | 32 | 385 | 12 | 3 | 27.5 |
| 2008 | TAM | 14 | 12 | 38 | 21 | 250 | 11.9 | 3 | 17.9 |
| 2009 | PHI | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 2010 | CLE | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| 2011 | CLE | 14 | 4 | 25 | 14 | 131 | 9.4 | 1 | 9.4 |
| 2012 | CLE | 12 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 2013 | CIN | 16 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0.8 |
| 2015 | WAS | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Career | 122 | 57 | 265 | 163 | 1,473 | 9.0 | 13 | 12.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Stanford | ACC | 2 | 52 | 706 | 3 | 13.6 | 353 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
58%
ML model output
Context Prob
58%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
847 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.465
Class YPR rank: top 11% — elite per-target efficiency+0.376
353.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.284
Top Negative Factors
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.408
Speed × production: 64.2 — strong combined athletic output-0.378
353.0 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate-0.277