Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Player breakdown

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Washington · 2014 Draft Class

6-5262 lbs2nd round, 38th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~33
HighJohn Mackey x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

72%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2014TAM99382122110.5224.6
2015TAM73392133816.1448.3
20162TM92201315411.8117.1
2016TAM20334414.7122
2016NYJ72171011011015.7
2017NYJ131074503577.1327.5
2018JAX551911908.2118
Career52312101291,31410.21225.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2011WashingtonBig Ten436479613.3119.8
2012WashingtonBig Ten669852712.3142
2013WashingtonBig Ten733413712.559
Career171381,7442012.6102.6

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

47%

ML model output

Context Prob

47%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,136 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.459
119.8 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.351
3.25 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.309

Top Negative Factors

Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.375
Class YPR rank: top 50% — average per-target efficiency-0.337
Speed × production: 87.7 — strong combined athletic output-0.315

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)