Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Bear Pascoe
Bear Pascoe

Player breakdown

Bear Pascoe

Fresno St. · 2009 Draft Class

6-5251 lbs6th round, 184th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

31%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2009NYG41119902.3
2010NYG151113972804.8
2011NYG1611161213611.308.5
2012NYG15394358.812.3
2013NYG1662012816.805.1
2014ATL1622231.510.2
Career823461403368.424.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2005Fresno StateMountain West0324080
2006Fresno StateMountain West0223072140
2007Fresno StateMountain West039481412.30
2008Fresno StateMountain West33736149.8120.3
Career31011,1731011.6391.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

31%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

107" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.578
Best season: 120.3 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling+0.301
120.3 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate+0.223

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+112 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.721
416 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.504
Reception rate trend-0.335

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)