Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ben Koyack
Ben Koyack

Player breakdown

Ben Koyack

Notre Dame · 2015 Draft Class

6-5255 lbs7th round, 229th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

8%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2016JAX14724191618.5111.5
2017JAX16375387.602.4
2019JAX116319900.8
Career411634252088.315.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2011Notre DameFBS Independents015050
2012Notre DameFBS Independents03390130
2013Notre DameFBS Independents39158317.652.7
2014Notre DameFBS Independents1228303010.825.2
Career1541505312.333.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

8%

ML model output

Context Prob

8%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

-56.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.191
YPG ranked at 20th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.185
5.0 YPR in first season — average freshman efficiency+0.161

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+99) — improving trajectory-0.696
101 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.515
1.19 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.456

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)