Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Billy Bajema
Billy Bajema

Player breakdown

Billy Bajema

Oklahoma St. · 2005 Draft Class

6-5261 lbs7th round, 249th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

53%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2005SFO1571055410.803.6
2006SFO166100000
2007SFO142100000
2008SFO161042341702.1
2009STL1651189411.805.9
2010STL138241414510.4211.2
2011STL1612149717.904.4
2012BAL81100000
2013BAL612218903
Career12052684041610.423.5
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004Oklahoma StateBig 12118264114.7264

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

53%

ML model output

Context Prob

53%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

113" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.628
Class YPR rank: top 0% — elite per-target efficiency+0.354
264.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.312

Top Negative Factors

316 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.399
1.01 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.325
264.0 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate-0.261

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)