Player breakdown
Brad Smelley
Alabama · 2012 Draft Class
7th round, 247th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | CLE | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Alabama | SEC | 0 | 6 | 91 | 0 | 15.2 | 0 |
| 2009 | Alabama | SEC | 0 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 7.1 | 0 |
| 2010 | Alabama | SEC | 0 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 8.8 | 0 |
| 2011 | Alabama | SEC | 3 | 27 | 317 | 4 | 11.7 | 105.7 |
| Career | 3 | 44 | 493 | 4 | 11.2 | 164.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
9%
ML model output
Context Prob
9%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Efficiency consistency: 1.35 — highly consistent across seasons+0.266
Best season: 105.7 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling+0.262
105.7 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate+0.234
Top Negative Factors
Positive production trend (+75) — improving trajectory-0.737
422 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.495
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.444