Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Brent Celek
Brent Celek

Player breakdown

Brent Celek

Cincinnati · 2007 Draft Class

5th round, 162nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~41
High700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

56%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2007PHI164221617811.1111.1
2008PHI167382731811.8119.9
2009PHI16151127697112.8860.7
2010PHI1615794251112.2431.9
2011PHI1616986281113.1550.7
2012PHI1514885768412145.6
2013PHI1615513250215.7631.4
2014PHI1615513234010.6121.3
2015PHI1613352739814.7324.9
2016PHI168191415511.109.7
2017PHI161024131301018.1
Career1751326173984,99812.63128.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004CincinnatiBig 12620217710.836.2
2005CincinnatiBig 12032361311.30
2006CincinnatiBig 12331460314.8153.3
Career9831,0381312.5115.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

56%

ML model output

Context Prob

56%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Reception rate trend+0.290
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.210
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.177

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+121 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.592
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.421
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.366

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)