Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Brenton Strange
Brenton Strange

Player breakdown

Brenton Strange

Penn St. · 2023 Draft Class

6-4253 lbs2nd round, 61st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

14%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2023JAX1449535712.5
2024JAX1710534041110.3224.2
2025JAX1212604654011.7345
Career43261229198610.8622.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2019Penn StateBig Ten114044
2020Penn StateBig Ten613133010.222.2
2021Penn StateBig Ten920245012.227.2
2022Penn StateBig Ten1128338012.130.7
Career2762720011.626.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

14%

ML model output

Context Prob

14%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

124" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.588
Reception rate trend+0.273
-63.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.189

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+111 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.697
450 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.496
1.34 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.445

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)