Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Brycen Hopkins
Brycen Hopkins

Player breakdown

Brycen Hopkins

Purdue · 2020 Draft Class

6-4245 lbs4th round, 136th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~29
EliteMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

91%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2021LAR50119901.8
2022LAR14111710915.607.8
2023LAR150757815.605.2
Career341191319615.105.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2016PurdueBig Ten610183018.330.5
2017PurdueBig Ten918229012.725.4
2018PurdueBig Ten1132564017.651.3
2019PurdueBig Ten1161830313.675.5
Career371211,806314.948.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

91%

ML model output

Context Prob

91%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,106 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.653
116" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.591
3.39 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.389

Top Negative Factors

Speed × production: 86.2 — strong combined athletic output-0.321
30.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.320
BMI 29.8 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (245 lbs)-0.250

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)