Player breakdown
Cade Otton
Washington · 2022 Draft Class
6-5247 lbs4th round, 106th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | TAM | 16 | 11 | 65 | 42 | 391 | 9.3 | 2 | 24.4 |
| 2023 | TAM | 17 | 17 | 67 | 47 | 455 | 9.7 | 4 | 26.8 |
| 2024 | TAM | 14 | 14 | 87 | 59 | 600 | 10.2 | 4 | 42.9 |
| 2025 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 81 | 59 | 572 | 9.7 | 1 | 35.8 |
| Career | 63 | 58 | 300 | 207 | 2,018 | 9.7 | 11 | 32.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Washington | Pac-12 | 7 | 12 | 158 | 0 | 13.2 | 22.6 |
| 2019 | California | Pac-12 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 2019 | Washington | Pac-12 | 10 | 27 | 322 | 0 | 11.9 | 32.2 |
| 2020 | Washington | Pac-12 | 4 | 18 | 258 | 3 | 14.3 | 64.5 |
| 2021 | Washington | Pac-12 | 7 | 19 | 164 | 1 | 8.6 | 23.4 |
| Career | 29 | 77 | 907 | 4 | 11.8 | 31.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
37%
ML model output
Context Prob
37%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.263
Reception rate trend+0.255
-58.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.181
Top Negative Factors
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.411
364 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.393
1.30 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.379