Player breakdown
Charles Clay
Tulsa · 2011 Draft Class
6th round, 174th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~37
High700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
71%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | MIA | 16 | 15 | 102 | 69 | 759 | 11 | 6 | 47.4 |
| 2014 | MIA | 14 | 14 | 84 | 58 | 605 | 10.4 | 3 | 43.2 |
| 2015 | BUF | 13 | 13 | 77 | 51 | 528 | 10.4 | 3 | 40.6 |
| 2016 | BUF | 15 | 15 | 87 | 57 | 552 | 9.7 | 4 | 36.8 |
| 2017 | BUF | 13 | 13 | 74 | 49 | 558 | 11.4 | 2 | 42.9 |
| 2018 | BUF | 13 | 12 | 36 | 21 | 184 | 8.8 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2019 | ARI | 15 | 10 | 24 | 18 | 237 | 13.2 | 1 | 15.8 |
| Career | 99 | 92 | 484 | 323 | 3,423 | 10.6 | 19 | 34.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Tulsa | American Athletic | 5 | 58 | 955 | 6 | 16.5 | 191 |
| 2008 | Tulsa | American Athletic | 7 | 36 | 471 | 9 | 13.1 | 67.3 |
| 2009 | Tulsa | American Athletic | 6 | 39 | 530 | 5 | 13.6 | 88.3 |
| 2010 | Tulsa | American Athletic | 6 | 41 | 488 | 7 | 11.9 | 81.3 |
| Career | 24 | 174 | 2,444 | 27 | 14.0 | 101.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
71%
ML model output
Context Prob
71%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Class YPR rank: top 25% — strong per-target efficiency+0.388
Efficiency consistency: 1.17 — highly consistent across seasons+0.257
191.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.241
Top Negative Factors
318 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.376
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.359
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.323