Player breakdown
Charlie Kolar
Iowa St. · 2022 Draft Class
6-7252 lbs4th round, 128th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x2Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
72%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | BAL | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 | 24.5 |
| 2023 | BAL | 15 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 87 | 12.4 | 1 | 5.8 |
| 2024 | BAL | 13 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 131 | 14.6 | 1 | 10.1 |
| 2025 | BAL | 17 | 7 | 15 | 10 | 142 | 14.2 | 2 | 8.4 |
| Career | 47 | 13 | 41 | 30 | 409 | 13.6 | 4 | 8.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 6 | 11 | 137 | 2 | 12.5 | 22.8 |
| 2019 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 12 | 48 | 675 | 7 | 14.1 | 56.2 |
| 2020 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 9 | 32 | 430 | 4 | 13.4 | 47.8 |
| 2021 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 9 | 40 | 478 | 3 | 11.9 | 53.1 |
| Career | 36 | 131 | 1,720 | 16 | 13.1 | 47.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
66%
ML model output
Context Prob
66%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
810 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.609
2.68 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.394
Class YPR rank: top 29% — strong per-target efficiency+0.372
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+113 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.625
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.372
22.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.285