Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Charlie Kolar
Charlie Kolar

Player breakdown

Charlie Kolar

Iowa St. · 2022 Draft Class

6-7252 lbs4th round, 128th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x2Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

72%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2022BAL20644912.3024.5
2023BAL153978712.415.8
2024BAL13311913114.6110.1
2025BAL177151014214.228.4
Career4713413040913.648.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2018Iowa StateBig 12611137212.522.8
2019Iowa StateBig 121248675714.156.2
2020Iowa StateBig 12932430413.447.8
2021Iowa StateBig 12940478311.953.1
Career361311,7201613.147.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

66%

ML model output

Context Prob

66%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

810 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.609
2.68 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.394
Class YPR rank: top 29% — strong per-target efficiency+0.372

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+113 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.625
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.372
22.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.285

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)