Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Charlie Woerner
Charlie Woerner

Player breakdown

Charlie Woerner

Georgia · 2020 Draft Class

6-5244 lbs6th round, 190th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

54%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2020SFO14043361202.6
2021SFO173655210.403.1
2022SFO172200000
2023SFO172333210.701.9
2024ATL165127466.602.9
2025ATL17139848602.8
Career982536262148.202.2
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2016GeorgiaSEC555001010
2017GeorgiaSEC4679013.219.8
2018GeorgiaSEC79121013.417.3
2019GeorgiaSEC697818.713
Career2229328111.314.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

54%

ML model output

Context Prob

54%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

120" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.632
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.03 — variable output+0.264
Reception rate trend+0.256

Top Negative Factors

161 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.420
0.50 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.369
10.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.328

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)