Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chase Coffman
Chase Coffman

Player breakdown

Chase Coffman

Missouri · 2009 Draft Class

6-6244 lbs3rd round, 98th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-American x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

78%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2010CIN6053301005
2012ATL5011121202.4
2013ATL110200000
2014TEN1331466410.714.9
20152TM20118718.9135.5
2015TEN10644210.5042
2015SEA1054297.3129
Career39344262489.536.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2005MissouriSEC339404310.4134.7
2006MissouriSEC653555810.592.5
2007MissouriSEC551523710.3104.6
2008MissouriSEC8839201011.1115
Career222262,4022810.6109.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

54%

ML model output

Context Prob

54%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,226 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.600
3.77 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.381
134.7 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.350

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+172 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.449
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.361
Class YPR rank: top 71% — average per-target efficiency-0.338

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)