Player breakdown
Chase Coffman
Missouri · 2009 Draft Class
6-6244 lbs3rd round, 98th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-American x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | CIN | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 5 |
| 2012 | ATL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 2013 | ATL | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | TEN | 13 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 64 | 10.7 | 1 | 4.9 |
| 2015 | 2TM | 2 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 71 | 8.9 | 1 | 35.5 |
| 2015 | TEN | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 | 42 |
| 2015 | SEA | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 | 29 |
| Career | 39 | 3 | 44 | 26 | 248 | 9.5 | 3 | 6.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Missouri | SEC | 3 | 39 | 404 | 3 | 10.4 | 134.7 |
| 2006 | Missouri | SEC | 6 | 53 | 555 | 8 | 10.5 | 92.5 |
| 2007 | Missouri | SEC | 5 | 51 | 523 | 7 | 10.3 | 104.6 |
| 2008 | Missouri | SEC | 8 | 83 | 920 | 10 | 11.1 | 115 |
| Career | 22 | 226 | 2,402 | 28 | 10.6 | 109.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
54%
ML model output
Context Prob
54%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,226 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.600
3.77 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.381
134.7 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.350
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+172 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.449
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.361
Class YPR rank: top 71% — average per-target efficiency-0.338