Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chigoziem Okonkwo
Chigoziem Okonkwo

Player breakdown

Chigoziem Okonkwo

Maryland · 2022 Draft Class

6-3238 lbs4th round, 143rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

14%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2022TEN178463245014.1326.5
2023TEN171177545289.8131.1
2024TEN171170524799.2228.2
2025TEN1712795656010232.9
Career68422721942,01710.4829.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2018MarylandBig Ten6669011.511.5
2019MarylandBig Ten719201010.628.7
2021MarylandBig Ten104536828.236.8
Career237063829.127.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

14%

ML model output

Context Prob

14%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Reception rate trend+0.268
Efficiency consistency: 1.26 — highly consistent across seasons+0.238
Speed × production: 42.0 — average combined athletic output+0.188

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+149 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.564
1.55 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.451
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.405

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)