Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Chris Gragg
Chris Gragg

Player breakdown

Chris Gragg

Arkansas · 2013 Draft Class

6-3244 lbs7th round, 222nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

12%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2013BUF91755310.615.9
2014BUF105107486.914.8
2015BUF134201215012.5011.5
Career3210372425110.527.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2008ArkansasSEC01250250
2010ArkansasSEC27155222.177.5
2011ArkansasSEC240492212.3246
2012ArkansasSEC222289313.1144.5
Career670961713.7160.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

12%

ML model output

Context Prob

12%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

125" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.578
Class YPR rank: top 19% — elite per-target efficiency+0.354
Efficiency consistency: 1.82 — highly consistent across seasons+0.238

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+88) — improving trajectory-0.729
Speed × production: 58.5 — average combined athletic output-0.351
25.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.345

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)