Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Coby Fleener
Coby Fleener

Player breakdown

Coby Fleener

Stanford · 2012 Draft Class

6-6247 lbs2nd round, 34th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

81%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2012IND1210482628110.8223.4
2013IND1612875260811.7438
2014IND1612925177415.2848.4
2015IND161184544919.1330.7
2016NOR168815063112.6339.4
2017NOR111302229513.4226.8
Career87544222553,08012.12235.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2008StanfordACC013176013.50
2009StanfordACC021266112.70
2010StanfordACC022261411.90
2011StanfordACC8326481020.281
Career8881,3511515.4168.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

81%

ML model output

Context Prob

81%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

777 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.611
Class YPR rank: top 18% — elite per-target efficiency+0.387
2.62 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.386

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+157 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.411
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.349
Reception rate trend-0.312

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)