Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Cole Kmet
Cole Kmet

Player breakdown

Cole Kmet

Notre Dame · 2020 Draft Class

6-6262 lbs2nd round, 43rd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~27
Low700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

14%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2020CHI16944282438.7215.2
2021CHI1717936061210.2036
2022CHI1717695054410.9732
2023CHI171790737199.8642.3
2024CHI1716554747410.1427.9
2025CHI1615483034711.6221.7
Career100913992882,93910.22129.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2017Notre DameFBS Independents12140714
2018Notre DameFBS Independents814151010.818.9
2019GeorgiaSEC114044
2019Notre DameFBS Independents938463012.251.4
Career1955632011.533.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

14%

ML model output

Context Prob

14%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

123" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.576
Reception rate trend+0.278
Speed × production: 49.7 — average combined athletic output+0.193

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+149 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.551
154 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.524
1.77 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.445

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)