Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Craig Stevens
Craig Stevens

Player breakdown

Craig Stevens

California · 2008 Draft Class

6-3254 lbs3rd round, 85th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~42
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

27%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2008TEN162219900.6
2009TEN122100000
2010TEN1513231112211.128.1
2011TEN151114916618.4111.1
2012TEN1515332327512118.3
2013TEN15146252.500.3
2014TEN5422261305.2
2015TEN1611161212110.127.6
Career10972976072412.166.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004CaliforniaACC1461115.261
2005CaliforniaACC213165212.782.5
2006CaliforniaACC116213113.3213
2007CaliforniaACC31720431268
Career750643712.991.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

27%

ML model output

Context Prob

27%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

114" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.579
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.250
Efficiency consistency: 1.19 — highly consistent across seasons+0.241

Top Negative Factors

61.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.469
255 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.459
0.84 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.362

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)