Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert

Player breakdown

Dallas Goedert

South Dakota St. · 2018 Draft Class

6-5256 lbs2nd round, 49th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~31
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

75%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2018PHI168443333410.1420.9
2019PHI159875860710.5540.5
2020PHI119654652411.4347.6
2021PHI1514765683014.8455.3
2022PHI1212695570212.8358.5
2023PHI1414835959210342.3
2024PHI1010524249611.8249.6
2025PHI151582605919.91139.4
Career108915584094,67611.43543.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2014South Dakota StateMVFC119099
2015South Dakota StateMVFC1249024.549
2016South Dakota StateMVFC1596119.296
Career38154119.351.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

75%

ML model output

Context Prob

75%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Class YPR rank: top 0% — elite per-target efficiency+0.388
Reception rate trend+0.286
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.02 — variable output+0.255

Top Negative Factors

32 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.424
0.38 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.409
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.359

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)