Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Dalton Keene
Dalton Keene

Player breakdown

Dalton Keene

Virginia Tech · 2020 Draft Class

6-4253 lbs3rd round, 101st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~27
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

57%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2020NWE6053165.302.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2017Virginia TechACC610167016.727.8
2018Virginia TechACC1024322013.432.2
2019Virginia TechACC719230012.132.9
Career2353719013.631.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

57%

ML model output

Context Prob

57%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

125" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.606
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.254
Reception rate trend+0.238

Top Negative Factors

386 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.405
1.27 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.363
27.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.330

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)