Player breakdown
Dalton Kincaid
Utah · 2023 Draft Class
6-4246 lbs1st round, 25th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
EliteAll-Conference x1Missed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
90%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | BUF | 16 | 11 | 91 | 73 | 673 | 9.2 | 2 | 42.1 |
| 2024 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 75 | 44 | 448 | 10.2 | 2 | 34.5 |
| 2025 | BUF | 12 | 4 | 49 | 39 | 571 | 14.6 | 5 | 47.6 |
| Career | 41 | 24 | 215 | 156 | 1,692 | 10.8 | 9 | 41.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Utah | Pac-12 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| 2021 | Utah | Pac-12 | 12 | 31 | 452 | 0 | 14.6 | 37.7 |
| 2022 | Utah | Pac-12 | 12 | 64 | 815 | 1 | 12.7 | 67.9 |
| Career | 25 | 96 | 1,281 | 1 | 13.3 | 51.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
87%
ML model output
Context Prob
87%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
923 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.647
3.31 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.434
Class YPR rank: top 20% — elite per-target efficiency+0.384
Top Negative Factors
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.389
14.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.279
BMI 29.9 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (246 lbs)-0.252