Player breakdown
David Johnson
Arkansas St. · 2009 Draft Class
6-3190 lbs7th round, 241st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
12%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | PIT | 15 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 0.6 |
| 2010 | PIT | 16 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 2011 | PIT | 16 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 91 | 7.6 | 1 | 5.7 |
| 2013 | PIT | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 0 | 14 |
| 2014 | SDG | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.3 |
| 2015 | SDG | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.3 |
| 2016 | PIT | 16 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 80 | 11.4 | 0 | 5 |
| Career | 98 | 37 | 43 | 31 | 304 | 9.8 | 1 | 3.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 1 | 13 | 200 | 1 | 15.4 | 200 |
| 2007 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 2 | 10 | 204 | 3 | 20.4 | 102 |
| 2008 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 3 | 22 | 356 | 5 | 16.2 | 118.7 |
| Career | 6 | 45 | 760 | 9 | 16.9 | 126.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
12%
ML model output
Context Prob
12%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Class YPR rank: top 0% — elite per-target efficiency+0.403
200.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.252
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.233
Top Negative Factors
Positive production trend (+78) — improving trajectory-0.723
237 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.511
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.402