Predicting the Pros
Predictions/David Morgan
David Morgan

Player breakdown

David Morgan

Texas-San Antonio · 2016 Draft Class

6-4262 lbs6th round, 188th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

33%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2016MIN120114400.3
2017MIN1561210959.516.3
2018MIN11665367.203.3
Career381219161358.413.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2013UT San AntonioAmerican Athletic076909.90

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

33%

ML model output

Context Prob

33%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Reception rate trend+0.250
-47.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.181
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.177

Top Negative Factors

377 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.541
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.402
36.4 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.399

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)