Player breakdown
David Paulson
Oregon · 2012 Draft Class
6-3246 lbs7th round, 240th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
28%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | PIT | 16 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 2013 | PIT | 16 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 102 | 17 | 0 | 6.4 |
| Career | 32 | 9 | 21 | 13 | 153 | 11.8 | 0 | 4.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Oregon | Big Ten | 0 | 12 | 185 | 0 | 15.4 | 0 |
| 2010 | Oregon | Big Ten | 4 | 21 | 370 | 4 | 17.6 | 92.5 |
| 2011 | Oregon | Big Ten | 7 | 30 | 428 | 6 | 14.3 | 61.1 |
| Career | 11 | 63 | 983 | 10 | 15.6 | 89.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
28%
ML model output
Context Prob
28%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
110" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.557
Class YPR rank: top 9% — elite per-target efficiency+0.361
185.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.307
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+121 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.603
1.74 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.421
Reception rate trend-0.310