Predicting the Pros
Predictions/David Thomas
David Thomas

Player breakdown

David Thomas

Texas · 2006 Draft Class

6-3252 lbs3rd round, 86th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

70%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2006NWE153161115914.5110.6
2007NWE20119904.5
2008NWE15101799310.306.2
2009NOR158483535610.2123.7
2010NOR13846302197.3216.8
2011NOR5295163.203.2
2012NOR1571711867.845.7
Career80381541029389.2811.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004TexasSEC321376417.9125.3
2005TexasSEC440525513.1131.2
Career761901914.8128.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

70%

ML model output

Context Prob

70%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

113" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.548
125.3 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.381
Class YPR rank: top 20% — elite per-target efficiency+0.353

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+149 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.590
Speed × production: 55.6 — average combined athletic output-0.380
700 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.263

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)