Player breakdown
Dawson Knox
Mississippi · 2019 Draft Class
6-4254 lbs3rd round, 96th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
16%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | BUF | 15 | 11 | 50 | 28 | 388 | 13.9 | 2 | 25.9 |
| 2020 | BUF | 12 | 7 | 44 | 24 | 288 | 12 | 3 | 24 |
| 2021 | BUF | 15 | 14 | 71 | 49 | 587 | 12 | 9 | 39.1 |
| 2022 | BUF | 15 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 517 | 10.8 | 6 | 34.5 |
| 2023 | BUF | 12 | 11 | 36 | 22 | 186 | 8.5 | 2 | 15.5 |
| 2024 | BUF | 16 | 13 | 33 | 22 | 311 | 14.1 | 1 | 19.4 |
| 2025 | BUF | 17 | 12 | 49 | 36 | 417 | 11.6 | 4 | 24.5 |
| Career | 102 | 83 | 348 | 229 | 2,694 | 11.8 | 27 | 26.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Ole Miss | SEC | 8 | 23 | 300 | 0 | 13 | 37.5 |
| 2018 | Ole Miss | SEC | 9 | 15 | 284 | 0 | 18.9 | 31.6 |
| Career | 17 | 38 | 584 | 0 | 15.4 | 34.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
16%
ML model output
Context Prob
16%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Class YPR rank: top 14% — elite per-target efficiency+0.373
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.09 — variable output+0.245
Declining production trend (-16) — peaked before final season+0.192
Top Negative Factors
37.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.431
400 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.400
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.391