Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Derek Fine
Derek Fine

Player breakdown

Derek Fine

Kansas · 2008 Draft Class

6-3251 lbs4th round, 132nd overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~43
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

18%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2008BUF1051210949.419.4
2009BUF86189647.108
Career181130191588.318.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004KansasBig 120216080
2005KansasBig 12220221111.1110.5
2006KansasBig 12028355512.70
2007KansasBig 1204438048.60
Career2949721010.3486.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

18%

ML model output

Context Prob

18%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

115" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.567
Best season: 110.5 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling+0.267
110.5 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate+0.232

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+121 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.587
456 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.501
1.51 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.447

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)