Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Derek Schouman
Derek Schouman

Player breakdown

Derek Schouman

Boise St. · 2007 Draft Class

7th round, 222nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~41
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

27%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2007BUF3133196.306.3
2008BUF1612201515310.219.6
2009BUF2211910311.4051.5
Career2115342727510.2113.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004Boise StateMountain West112231219.2231
2005Boise StateMountain West116168110.5168
2006Boise StateMountain West22120439.7102
Career449603612.3150.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

27%

ML model output

Context Prob

27%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Efficiency consistency: 1.56 — highly consistent across seasons+0.255
231.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.238
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.03 — variable output+0.233

Top Negative Factors

200 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.433
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.377
Class YPR rank: top 56% — average per-target efficiency-0.351

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)