Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Dion Sims
Dion Sims

Player breakdown

Dion Sims

Michigan St. · 2013 Draft Class

6-5262 lbs4th round, 106th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

9%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2013MIA155106325.312.1
2014MIA142362428411.8220.3
2015MIA13425181277.119.8
2016MIA141135262569.8418.3
2017CHI1414291518012112.9
2018CHI844294.501.1
Career7840139918889.8911.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2009Michigan StateBig Ten311133312.144.3
2011Michigan StateBig Ten3129938.233
2012Michigan StateBig Ten036475213.20
Career659707812.0117.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

9%

ML model output

Context Prob

9%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

112" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.583
Speed × production: 48.9 — average combined athletic output+0.191
YPG ranked at 27th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.175

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+171 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.576
44.3 ypg as a freshman — solid first-year impact-0.456
1.81 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.423

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)