Predicting the Pros
Predictions/D.J. Williams
D.J. Williams

Player breakdown

D.J. Williams

Arkansas · 2011 Draft Class

6-2245 lbs5th round, 141st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~37
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

42%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2011GNB13042136.501
2012GNB132157578.104.4
20132TM91300000
2013JAX71200000
2013NWE20100000
Career444259707.801.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2007ArkansasSEC0594018.80
2008ArkansasSEC258699312.1349.5
2009ArkansasSEC332411312.8137
2010ArkansasSEC349589412196.3
Career81441,7931012.5224.1

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

42%

ML model output

Context Prob

42%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

932 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.625
111" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.618
2.85 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.366

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+165 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.441
Speed × production: 77.2 — strong combined athletic output-0.310
Best season: 349.5 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling-0.296

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)