Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Drew Sample
Drew Sample

Player breakdown

Drew Sample

Washington · 2019 Draft Class

6-5255 lbs2nd round, 52nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~30
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

42%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2019CIN926530603.3
2020CIN161353403498.7121.8
2021CIN1781511817.404.8
2022CIN2222-2-10-1
2023CIN171027221637.429.6
2024CIN171522201095.516.4
2025CIN171220151067.116.2
Career95621451158367.358.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2015WashingtonPac-12444411111
2016WashingtonPac-127898012.214
2017WashingtonPac-12467801319.5
2018WashingtonPac-12921229110.925.4
Career2439449211.518.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

42%

ML model output

Context Prob

42%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

115" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.617
Reception rate trend+0.278
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+61) — improving trajectory-0.659
259 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.517
0.90 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.432

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)