Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Durham Smythe
Durham Smythe

Player breakdown

Durham Smythe

Notre Dame · 2018 Draft Class

6-5253 lbs4th round, 123rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~31
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

34%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2018MIA152116508.303.3
2019MIA1614147659.304.1
2020MIA151329262088213.9
2021MIA1712413435710.5021
2022MIA161520151298.618.1
2023MIA1614433536610.5022.9
2024MIA174179535.903.1
2025CHI17264256.301.5
Career129761811361,2539.239.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2014Notre DameFBS Independents117077
2015Notre DameFBS Independents116066
2016Notre DameFBS Independents78100312.514.3
2017Notre DameFBS Independents81323411829.2
Career1723347415.120.4

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

34%

ML model output

Context Prob

34%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

110" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.516
Class YPR rank: top 17% — elite per-target efficiency+0.356
Reception rate trend+0.256

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+75) — improving trajectory-0.658
78 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.518
0.92 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.445

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)