Player breakdown
Dustin Keller
Purdue · 2008 Draft Class
6-2242 lbs1st round, 30th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~41
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
91%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | NYJ | 16 | 6 | 78 | 48 | 535 | 11.1 | 3 | 33.4 |
| 2009 | NYJ | 16 | 12 | 82 | 45 | 522 | 11.6 | 2 | 32.6 |
| 2010 | NYJ | 16 | 13 | 100 | 55 | 687 | 12.5 | 5 | 42.9 |
| 2011 | NYJ | 16 | 12 | 115 | 65 | 815 | 12.5 | 5 | 50.9 |
| 2012 | NYJ | 8 | 5 | 36 | 28 | 317 | 11.3 | 2 | 39.6 |
| Career | 72 | 48 | 411 | 241 | 2,876 | 11.9 | 17 | 39.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Purdue | Big Ten | 2 | 5 | 102 | 2 | 20.4 | 51 |
| 2005 | Purdue | Big Ten | 2 | 13 | 128 | 3 | 9.8 | 64 |
| 2006 | Purdue | Big Ten | 0 | 55 | 762 | 4 | 13.9 | 0 |
| 2007 | Purdue | Big Ten | 0 | 61 | 731 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Career | 4 | 134 | 1,723 | 15 | 12.9 | 430.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
91%
ML model output
Context Prob
91%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,016 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.652
131" broad jump — elite lower-body explosion+0.563
3.15 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.410
Top Negative Factors
51.0 ypg as a freshman — solid first-year impact-0.436
Speed × production: 87.6 — strong combined athletic output-0.308
Reception rate trend-0.289