Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Evan Rodriguez
Evan Rodriguez

Player breakdown

Evan Rodriguez

Temple · 2012 Draft Class

4th round, 111th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2012CHI12584215.301.8
2013BUF70100000
Career19594215.301.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2009TempleAmerican Athletic313145311.248.3
2010TempleAmerican Athletic221247211.8123.5
2011TempleAmerican Athletic233427212.9213.5
Career767819712.2117.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

7%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Reception rate trend+0.291
Catch radius: 0.0 — limited physical reach envelope+0.159
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.159

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+141 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.540
142 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.528
48.3 ypg as a freshman — solid first-year impact-0.413

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)