Player breakdown
Fred Davis
USC · 2008 Draft Class
6-3255 lbs2nd round, 48th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~40
EliteJohn Mackey x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
88%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | WAS | 11 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 2009 | WAS | 16 | 10 | 76 | 48 | 509 | 10.6 | 6 | 31.8 |
| 2010 | WAS | 16 | 9 | 30 | 21 | 316 | 15 | 3 | 19.8 |
| 2011 | WAS | 12 | 12 | 88 | 59 | 796 | 13.5 | 3 | 66.3 |
| 2012 | WAS | 7 | 7 | 31 | 24 | 325 | 13.5 | 0 | 46.4 |
| 2013 | WAS | 10 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 70 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| Career | 72 | 43 | 253 | 162 | 2,043 | 12.6 | 13 | 28.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | USC | Big Ten | 0 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 2005 | USC | Big Ten | 2 | 11 | 126 | 2 | 11.5 | 63 |
| 2006 | USC | Big Ten | 3 | 35 | 313 | 3 | 8.9 | 104.3 |
| 2007 | USC | Big Ten | 0 | 55 | 794 | 7 | 14.4 | 0 |
| Career | 5 | 105 | 1,263 | 12 | 12.0 | 252.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
88%
ML model output
Context Prob
88%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,058 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.637
3.11 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.426
Strong ascending production slope (+254 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.342
Top Negative Factors
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.355
30.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.332
Class YPR rank: top 53% — average per-target efficiency-0.328