Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Garrett Graham
Garrett Graham

Player breakdown

Garrett Graham

Wisconsin · 2010 Draft Class

6-3243 lbs4th round, 118th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~40
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

35%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2011HOU7021242403.4
2013HOU1311894954511.1541.9
2014HOU119281819710.9117.9
2015HOU82194307.513.8
Career39221387279611.1720.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2007WisconsinBig Ten42325341163.2
2008WisconsinBig Ten537478512.995.6
2009WisconsinBig Ten451624712.2156
Career131111,3551612.2104.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

35%

ML model output

Context Prob

35%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

832 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.612
112" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.551
2.57 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.330

Top Negative Factors

63.2 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.459
Strong ascending production slope (+185 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.387
Speed × production: 61.6 — strong combined athletic output-0.383

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)