Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Gavin Escobar
Gavin Escobar

Player breakdown

Gavin Escobar

San Diego St. · 2013 Draft Class

6-6254 lbs2nd round, 47th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

31%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2013DAL16115913414.928.4
2014DAL16113910511.746.6
2015DAL14413864814.6
2016DAL16174307.511.9
Career627483033311.185.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2010San Diego StateMountain West426299411.574.8
2011San Diego StateMountain West547710715.1142
2012San Diego StateMountain West042543612.90
Career91151,5521713.5172.4

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

31%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

114" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.507
Class YPR rank: top 25% — strong per-target efficiency+0.356
2.80 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.351

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+122 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.555
74.8 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.450
Speed × production: 65.7 — strong combined athletic output-0.381

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)