Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Geoff Swaim
Geoff Swaim

Player breakdown

Geoff Swaim

Texas · 2015 Draft Class

7th round, 246th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~32
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2015DAL41110000
2016DAL96866911.507.7
2017DAL152222512.501.7
2018DAL9932262429.3126.9
2019JAX621713655010.8
2021TEN161640312106.8313.1
2022TEN17131612584.813.4
2023ARI1481110949.406.7
2024CLE82117700.9
Career98591281027707.557.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2013TexasSEC0212060
2014TexasBig 12610701711.7
Career6128216.813.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

7%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.02 — variable output+0.244
YPG ranked at 7th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.198
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.154

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+58) — improving trajectory-0.696
93 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.508
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.455

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)