Predicting the Pros
Predictions/George Kittle
George Kittle

Player breakdown

George Kittle

Iowa · 2017 Draft Class

6-4247 lbs5th round, 146th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
High700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

67%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2017SFO157634351512234.3
2018SFO1616136881,37715.6586.1
2019SFO1414107851,05312.4575.2
2020SFO88634863413.2279.3
2021SFO1414947191012.8665
2022SFO1515866076512.81151
2023SFO161690651,02015.7663.8
2024SFO151594781,10614.2873.7
2025SFO1111695762811757.1
Career1241168025958,00813.55264.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2013IowaBig Ten05108021.60
2014IowaBig Ten112502525
2015IowaBig Ten817258015.232.2
2016IowaBig Ten819259013.632.4
Career1742650015.538.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

67%

ML model output

Context Prob

67%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

132" broad jump — elite lower-body explosion+0.599
Class YPR rank: top 8% — elite per-target efficiency+0.356
108.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.352

Top Negative Factors

345 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.407
1.05 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.387
Reception rate trend-0.290

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)